World Economic Forum, key points and details of Petro’s agenda – Economy

At about 8 in the morning yesterday, when the attendees of the World Economic Forum in Davos began to arrive at the Congress Center, the thermometer marked seven degrees below zero. The temperature, typical for this time of year in the town located in the Swiss Alps, forced those present to wear hats, gloves, scarves, boots and thick jackets every time they went out.

But the cold outside was offset by the warmth of the enclosed area. And not only because of the heating, but also because of a couple of main messages after the first day of sessions, which served to raise the spirits of the audience.

The first was the ratification of the alliance that supports Ukraine against the Russian invasion. After an intervention by Olena Zelenska —wife of Volodimir Zelenskithe Ukrainian president — came the expressions of economic and military support “for as long as it is necessary”, as expressed by the Prime Minister of Finland, Sana Marin.

Showing a united front is important as all signs point to a protracted and costly conflict, the outcome of which will determine the course of the world. Apart from containing Vladimir Putin’s expansionist intentions, it is about demonstrating that the West has the capacity to mobilize before a similar adventure in another latitude.

(It may interest you: Petro met with Alain Berset, president of the Swiss Confederation for 2023)

Added to this is the ability to adapt to supply cuts by the Kremlin and especially natural gas. Thanks to a more moderate winter and the ability to accumulate inventories, the Old Continent has a way to guarantee the supply of electricity, radically reducing its dependence on Moscow.

And that circumstance is what explains the second piece of good news that resounded loudly in Davos: the outlook for the world economy is improving significantly. This was stated by Gita Gopinath, the number two of the International Monetary Fund, when announcing that the multilateral organization will revise upwards the projections it had made, whose figures will be known in the coming days.

According to the India-born economist, inflationary pressures have begun to ease. Although the rhythm of prices has yet to return to its historical average, the change in trend is not a minor matter.

Due, prospects for significant interest rate hikes have faded, something that interests both rich countries and emerging economies. Although the economic policy will continue to be restrictive, it is probable that the recession that was announced for the Eurozone will not materialize.

In addition, the news from China is encouraging as the demand for durable goods has rebounded, despite the fact that the authorities in Beijing abandoned the strategy of suppressing sources of covid-19 infection at all costs. Contradictory as it sounds, the turnaround —despite a jump in the number of positive cases— makes it more viable to accelerate the reopening of the second-largest economy on the planet, whose growth should accelerate.

to the above the effect of the law issued by the Biden administration is added, which creates significant stimuli for alternative energy sources, sustainable mobility and green business, associated with environmental protection. Due to direct aid and tax credits, investments totaling billions of dollars have been announced, concentrated in factories of solar panels or electric vehicles, among other lines.

The Old Continent also aspires to move in the same direction, as the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said. As the effort to increase energy security continues, the view that the transition to renewable sources will boost the economy in that part of the world is gaining favor.

The aforementioned is also part of the purpose of fighting global warming. Fatih Birol, president of the International Energy Agency, acknowledged that much has been achieved, but that the volume of resources destined to generate energy based on non-polluting plants must still be multiplied by six.

Apart from the above, there is the need for lower-income nations to be able to adopt clean technologies more quickly. Such a purpose will be more difficult to achieve, given the increase in the cost of credit for emerging economies.

Faced with such a disparity, the ground is fertile for more vehement calls to be made in favor of solidarity. That is what Gustavo Petro will very possibly do when he participates in three public events, including one that will take place in the main hall of the Congress Center.

After a long journey that included a stopover on the African island of Cape Verde to refuel, the presidential plane touched down in Zurich at 10:40 a.m. yesterday. Immediately afterwards, and after speaking with the press that accompanied him on the ship, Petro traveled to Davos in a Swiss army helicopter, where he arrived shortly before noon on Tuesday, January 17.

(Also read: Gustavo Petro is already in Davos for the World Economic Forum)

On Tuesday afternoon I got the official commitments that included a panel on food safety and a meeting with the president of the Swiss Community.

The agenda culminated with an early dinner, since the intention was to leave space to rest and prepare the interventions of what will be an intense day. The expectation is that the president reiterates some of the statements he made before the General Assembly of the United Nations to the end of last September or at the environmental summit in Egypt, better known as COP 27.

These are not only related to the need to leave fossil fuels behind more quickly, but also to the aspiration that the world reward the countries that house the lungs of the world starting with the Amazon, a position that Brazil partly shares.

This would also be the way to upload the profile to Latin America, whose presence at the World Economic Forum has not been relevant until now. Apart from not being the epicenter of major geopolitical tensions, the region is going through a complex economic crossroads and significant political turmoil, which does not make it the most attractive for risk-averse investors. It will be necessary to see if the narrative that is heard today arouses interest or confirms the resentments that some have.

Forum: ‘An opportunity to review the goals’

Three questions to: Marina Silva, Minister of the Environment of Brazil

The environmental theme is one of the central themes in Davos. But beyond that great expectation, there is concern that we are not on the right path. Do you share that impression?

I think that having the theme as central in a forum like this is progress, it is very important. Because it is generally necessary that we first have a political commitment and then have public agreements in relation to certain agendas. Obviously when that happens, then the demands of society will arrive so that the statements have consequences, gain in importance. On the other hand, it is important that we make progress on the part of governments, as well as companies. We have to stabilize carbon dioxide emissions so that the increase in average temperatures on the planet does not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius and that is not happening, either due to the failure of one or the other. I think this is a great opportunity for each major player to review their goals and schedules in order to achieve them. I am referring to specific activities in the transport, energy or agricultural sectors.

How do you assign that responsibility of “we are not doing enough” for countries of the northern and southern hemispheres?

The responsibility is differentiated. However, the principle of common, albeit differentiated, responsibility should not serve as a pretext for developing countries not to do their part. What we demand is that we be supported with technological cooperation, with financial resources, with political support, so that we can fulfill our duty regarding the issue, above all low and lower-middle income countries. Brazil is an upper-middle income country. Right now we are experiencing a crisis. We need support. But in Brazil, unlike the Bolsonaro government, President Lula does not condition the forest with the fact that they pay us for it. We are going to do it because it is our obligation, our commitment. Obviously, as we are experiencing an economic, political and environmental crisis, we are looking for support and alliances.

Colombia and Brazil are Amazon countries. What do you expect to work with the Colombian government?

That we have a cooperation that is robust in the area of ​​economic development, in the environmental area, but above all a cooperation that goes beyond the field of business, of economic interests. We can do cultural, scientific cooperation; create an environment in which our countries intersect culturally, socially, technologically. I think that when we know each other better, we become closer, it’s easier to do business.

* Senior analyst
Special envoy from EL TIEMPO to Davos (Switzerland)