After the mortgage crisis of the late 1990s in Colombia, builders opted for off-plan sales to be more secure. Because, made the decision to start the work only when reaching a break-even point of more than 50 percent, on average; that is to say, only with those insured sales, the money deposited in the trust by potential buyers was disbursed to start building.
This decision was key to boosting the market, and, incidentally, to regain the confidence of buyers who lived with the ghost of the Constant Purchasing Power Unit (UPAC) crisis. Many of us remember the aftermath of that crisis; in my case, because the journalistic exercise led me to cover the subject, which left thousands of families homeless in the statistics.
These antecedents are closely related to that practice –the sale on plans–, which was consolidated between the building industry entrepreneurs to try to minimize, in part, the risks.
From 76.4 percent of the equilibrium point that was managed in 2018, it went to 85 percent last year, according to the Colombian Chamber of Construction (Camacol), although some builders warn that it can be up to 90 percent.
And it is necessary, if one takes into account that –as the Anif economic studies center says– “the elements that drove the good performance of the buildings are coming to an end”. To this is added «the expectation regarding the quotas of subsidies, the increase in the rates for the purchase of housing and the persistence of the increase in inputs for the sector», as well as «inflation, which continues at high levels and which dilutes the ability of households to purchase real estate.
Caution against demolition
In this scenario, during 2023 monitoring must be rigorous. The construction of 188,829 new homes will begin in Colombia, 132,947 social interest homes (VIS) and 55,882 of medium and medium-high ranges (No VIS), and this forces it to be so, because withdrawals could be presented, that is, purchase and sale businesses that will be reversed.
According to the building union, this indicator is still manageable and is at 8.8 percent compared to 11.6 percent in 2018 and just over 10 percent in 2022. Anif warns that «compared to 2022 and 2021 of positive figures for the sector, a 2023 of less activity is glimpsed thus marking the end of the boom in the building sector”.
And, beware, we must bear in mind that Those 188,829 units that will begin work will employ 1,019,677 workers. These are direct and indirect jobs that provide a key indicator for the country’s economy and have a far-reaching social impact.
Gabriel E. Florez G.
Special for EL TIEMPO
@GabrielFlorezG
