Despite the economy grew 7.5 percent in 2022, its dynamism diminished in the final part of the year. In the fourth quarter, GDP only decreased 2.9 percent, below analysts’ expectations.
These data generate greater concerns regarding the magnitude that the economic slowdown in the country could have.
(You can also read: The reasons for the notable slowdown in the economy in the last quarter of 2022)
And it is that due to high inflation and global uncertainty Colombia’s growth projections have dropped for this 2023. While the World Bank forecasts that it would grow by 1.3 percent, the International Monetary Fund speaks of 1.1 percent.
Even the signals are even stronger at the beginning of 2023, with indicators such as consumer confidence and household spending, their performances show that the slowdown that has been observed in consumption has accentuated.
bigger slowdowns
Ten of the 12 indicators measured by the Dane slowed down in the last 12 months (December 2021-December 2022).
Despite the fact that agriculture is the sector that is falling the most, it is not the one that is slowing down the most, according to the calculations made by this medium based on data from the statistical entity.
The branch that has slowed down its growth the most in the last 12 months is the trade, transport and accommodation. This has lost up to 15 points, going from growing at a rate of 26.7 percent in the full year ending in January 2022 to only 11.6 percent in December.
It is followed by construction, which grew at a rate of 15.8 percent in January 2022 and fell to 6.5 percent in December. This sector began to slow down since April of last year and has not recovered. In total, it has lost 9.3 points in the last 12 months (December 2021-December 2022).
Behind is the manufacturing industry, which, from growing at 18 percent, gradually slowed down to 10.6 percent in the last month of the year. Its deceleration has been 7.3 points.
San Victorino in December.
Mauricio Moreno / EL TIEMPO
He agriculture it closed the year with a 1.7 percent drop, but since it came from smaller growth (3 percent), this drop is not as pronounced. In total, he has lost 4.7 points.
According to Anif, agriculture is the main mole in the growth data. “Weather conditions reduced harvests and the strong devaluation of the peso had an impact on the cost of inputs. This also meant a significant supply shock that led food inflation to settle at 27.81 percent at the end of the year,” he pointed out.
Even though the artistic, entertainment and creative activities are the ones that increased the most last year, they also slowed down. From growing at a rate of 40.6 percent, it went to 38 percent, that is, the fall was 2.6 points.
The rest of the sectors also slowed down their growth, but to a lesser extent. The slowdown is about 2 points for mining and quarrying, professional and scientific activities, and the supply of electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning.
Deceleration of the sectors
12 months (December 2021-December 2022)
figures in points
– Trade transport and storage; lodging and food services -15.0
– Construction -9.3
– Manufacturing industries -7.3
– Agriculture -4.7
– Public administration and defense -3.4
– Artistic and entertainment activities -2.6
– Exploitation of mines and quarries -2.3
– Professional, scientific and technical activities -2.1
– Supply of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning -2.0
– Real estate activities -0.8
– Information and communications 1.3
– Financial and insurance activities 5.6
Which ones kept increasing?
The only branches that accelerated their growth at the end of 2022 were financial and insurance activities, which in the last 12 months increased 5.6 points, and the Information and Communications branch, with 1.3 points.
