The companies listed on the Stock Exchange came to report their financial results for the fourth quarter of 2022. According to an analysis by the commission agent brokerage housemost issuers would have neutral figures and a slowdown would occur amid variables such as high lighting, higher interest rates, the rising dollar and greater uncertainty.
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In it groupbancolombia, for their part, they are seeing for that same period, despite a context of slower economic growth, added to the following in the high levels of inflation, interest rates and devaluation, corporate results would account for a bias between neutral and positive. «We estimate that six companies will have positive results, six neutral and three negative,» they say.
They point out that in the public services sector they expect mixed results, in oil and gas, the results of ecopetrol they will continue to be positive, while in the fourth quarter of 2022 the banks would begin to show early signs of slowdown.
Positive results
The sectors exposed to the international prices of commodities would be the ones with the best results, they say, at the Stock Exchange. There are the companies oil & gas and public services (utilities), such as Ecopetrol, ISA and Grupo de Energía de Bogotá.
For example, according to Casa de Bolsa, the net profit for Ecopetrol shareholders would be 7.4 trillion pesos in the fourth quarter of 2022, which would represent a growth of 21.7 percent compared to the same period of the previous year.
In Bancolombia they point out that the oil results will continue to be positive given the annual increases in oil prices measured in Colombian pesos, the improvement in production and the expansion of the Reficar refining plant. As to hemp expect it to deliver negative results with a level
decrease in income, an Ebitda with an increase of less than 10 percent due to low sales volumes and a slightly negative price expectation; in terms of net income, it would be close to zero given the effect of exchange rates on taxes.
neutral results
In an environment of slowdown in consumption and economic activity in general, the consumer sector would present results between neutral and negative.
Besides, the inflation and exchange rate they would keep profit margins under pressure, where according to the commission agent the supermarket business would demonstrate greater resilience given its greater ease in terms of transferring prices to the consumer.
For Bancolombia analysts, the results of nutresa group, for example, they will be positive, with rising revenues strengthening operating margins in an environment where commodity price pressures on cost continue, despite some moderation on some fronts.
«This result would be due to a consumer who would maintain a certain resilience
in the categories of basic consumption despite the fact that in general a deterioration would be evident», they say.
Despite presenting annual improvements, a quarterly moderation would begin to be evidenced in the financial sector, with pressures derived from higher funding costs. The indicators of the banks would begin a path of normalization after a stage of exceptional results during 2022.
For Bancolombia, this sector would already be showing its first signs of slowdown in contrast to the results of the third quarter of that same year. «At the end of 4Q22 they would continue with double-digit portfolio growth (in line with the
trend observed so far this year), a moderate cost of risk and slightly stable margins within an environment in which they have been pressured by upward adjustments in the intervention rate».
Despite presenting annual improvements, a quarterly moderation in the financial sector would begin to be evidenced,
Andrea Moreno. time
Negative results
The worst scenario would be for the construction and materials sectoras a consequence of the notorious impact that the high cost environment would maintain on profit margins.
Specifically, the price increases would be reflected in a higher level of income, although the inflationary environment and fuel costs –a relevant input for the production process- would continue to exert significant pressure on the profit margins of the business.
The reading of Grupo Bancolombia in this segment is not positive either. Parachute cemargosfor example, expect a lower than expected deterioration in terms of profitability since the company maintained growth in the main operating items compared to the same quarter of 2021. Net income presented a material annual drop although it was less downward pressured than expected .
Regarding El Cóndor, they expect positive results in terms of income, due to the fact that a significant provision of services would continue in works fronts such as Magdalena River, San Francisco Mocoa and Santana Mocoa. However, they see that lower EbitdaA margin levels continue to be evidenced while net profit would continue to be under pressure.
