The parallels between the politics of Brazil and the US made the attack predictable for many

The parallels between the politics of Brazil and the US made the attack predictable for many

MIAMI — A day after supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed government buildings in Brazil, Vitor Spier, who lives in Orlando, Florida, condemned the violence in his native country.

But Spier, a Bolsonaro supporter who believes Brazil’s recent election was rigged, said he was «hoping» for some response from the former president’s supporters.

“We don’t believe he won by the will of the people,” Spier said, referring to the new president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, also known as Lula.

Spier’s view echoes what Bolsonaro and many of his allies have said since he lost the controversial presidential runoff on October 30, alleging voter fraud and rigged elections.

The expectation of violence in his home country was shared by Brazilian Americans who oppose Bolsonaro.

“This is not a surprise to anyone,” said Alinio Azevedo, a Brazilian who lives in Aspen, Colorado. “Bolsonaro has been talking about this for months. … It was totally avoidable.”

Bolsonaro is now in Orlando, where he has a following among the state’s growing number of Brazilian-Americans. Florida is home to a large number of Latin American expatriates, including many who support center-right politics and have reached out to the Republican Party, which has cultivated this growing voting bloc.

Florida is a permissive environment, particularly for the former president, said Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Council of the Americas and the Americas Society. «It’s a very common place where Latin Americans are generally welcome and feel comfortable.»

Bolsonaro was recently hospitalized in the Orlando area, according to a statement from his wife on Instagram.

His supporters had been gathering outside the home of retired Brazilian MMA fighter José Aldo, where Bolsonaro is believed to be staying, to express their support.

In a video uploaded to youtubeOrlando real estate agent Ricardo Molina filmed what appeared to be the former president leaving the house to greet supporters ahead of Lula’s inauguration. Molina did not respond to a request for comment and NBC News has not verified Bolsonaro’s whereabouts.

Long-standing ties to Trump, allies

After the angry mob of Bolsonaro supporters stormed the presidential palace, Congress and the Supreme Court, many are drawing parallels between what happened in Brazil and the US Capitol riots in 2021. Donald Trump, as well as his former chief strategist, Steve Bannon.

After the loss of Bolsonaro, unsubstantiated allegations of electoral fraud began to emerge in Brazil, reminiscent of those in the United States.

Jair Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 28, 2022.
Jair Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 28, 2022.Mauro Pimentel / AFP – File Getty Images

After the riots on Sunday, Bannon shared a video on the far-right social media platform Gettr showing protesters entering the Congress building, calling them «Brazilian freedom fighters.»

Bannon also falsely posted «Lula stole the election» repeatedly.

Bannon had said before the Brazilian election that Bolsonaro would lose only if «the machines» steal the election.

Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president’s son who is also a congressman, has met with Trump and Bannon numerous times since his father took office in 2019.

Before the presidential elections in Brazil, Trump’s allies exported many of the former president’s campaign strategies to the Latin American country.

In a Conservative Political Action Coalition (CPAC) conference in brazil in 2021, guests included Donald Trump Jr. and Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., who voted against certifying the 2020 election results. Speakers attacked the press and branded rivals criminals and communists .

Eduardo Bolsonaro gave a presentation on voter fraud in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, in August 2021, at an event hosted by Mike Lindell, the pillow executive and one of the leading voices on Trump’s false claims that the election 2020 presidential elections were rigged.

eduardo bolsonaro was cheered by Lindell and Bannon while speaking about voter fraud, conspiracy theories, and fake news media.

After Bolsonaro’s defeat in October, tens of thousands of supporters began camping outside military installations across Brazil to protest his defeat.

Meanwhile, Eduardo Bolsonaro, visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago. He and other members of Bolsonaro’s inner circle have consulted with Trump allies to devise a strategy to follow, drawing on the energy of his father’s supporters.

Trump has not responded to the attack on the Brazilian capital.

There were other similarities to the events leading up to January 6.

Laura Pereira, a Brazilian researcher focused on social media and the internet, said protesters mainly used WhatsApp, Telegram and YouTube to organize and finance the uprising.

“Digital media were used to organize and execute the actions, not just to share disinformation,” Pereira said. “It is like an ecosystem of information about the need to act in Brasilia, to [steal] power, defend Bolsonaro’s agenda and rebel against democracy”.

“Disinformation was a growing part of our election,” he said, calling it a “challenge regarding democracy and the Internet in general.”

Parallels to January 6, but an important distinction

There is a fundamental difference between the riots in Brazil and January 6, according to Bruna Santos, senior adviser to the Brazil Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center, a Washington DC think tank.

“The main one is the moment; the attack on the Capitol had the ultimate goal of obstructing the oath of Joe Biden to prevent his victory from becoming a foregone conclusion,” Santos said. In Brazil, on the contrary, all the deadlines (declaration of results, swearing in, taking office) had passed before the riot occurred.

Image: Riots at the Capitol
Pro-Trump supporters storm the Capitol after a rally with President Donald Trump on January 6, 2021.Archive Samuel Corum/Getty Images

«This implies that the chance of a successful coup at this point is much more remote,» Santos said, «as evidenced by the rapid reaction of the global community.»

For Farnsworth, the timing of the riots showed that it was not about Bolsonaro returning to Brazil. “I don’t think Bolsonaro has any interest in doing that. That’s why he went to Florida,” he said.

“They are more interested in simply not allowing Lula to take power. … And if that is the case, then we have a real problem,” Farnsworth said of the implications for the new president.

Approximately 1,500 protesters have been detained since Sunday and it is considered the worst attack on democracy in the country in almost 40 years.

Those who predicted the violence say the police should have done more to prevent it. Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled on Sunday that Ibaneis Rocha, governor of the capital’s Federal District, be suspended following the violence.

“Everyone knew this was a possibility. Why the police department of the [Federal District] do something to stop it? Azevedo said. «There’s an open chat on social media of them coming together to do that.»

By Mitchell G. Patton

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