Sounds like a doomsday nightmare: Europe’s largest nuclear power plant stuck in the middle of a war zone, now supposedly rigged with explosives set to spread a radiological catastrophe across the continent.
Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been a constant source of fear since it was captured by Russia in the early days of its invasion in March last year. A drumbeat of warnings from Kiev and Moscow has grown in recent weeks, mounting on Tuesday night with each side accusing the other of planning an imminent attack designed to incriminate its warring rival.
The increasingly drastic warnings have fueled growing concern among residents of southeastern Ukraine and beyond, especially given the destruction of the massive dam that had previously been the source of similar alarms and accusations. But some experts told NBC News the risk of a widespread radiation leak was low.
“It’s actually quite difficult to stage a significant reactive incident here,” said Pavel Podvig, a senior fellow at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva. “Even if you try to blow it up, I don’t think you can spread” the radiation beyond a few hundred meters.
‘New evil?’
Ukraine has warned for months that Russia could try to blow up the nuclear plant. But rarely have these warnings been as specific as That of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday night, when he said that Russia had placed “explosive-like objects” on the roof, perhaps with the intention of blaming Ukraine for an attack.
“It is the responsibility of everyone in the world to stop it,” he said, his latest appeal for more help from allies. “No one can stand aside as radiation affects everyone.”
The Kremlin has presented its own version of events.
President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Wednesday that the Russian-controlled plant was at risk of “sabotage” by Ukraine. Russian energy giant Rosenergoatom’s deputy adviser Renat Karchaa said Ukraine planned to attack the plant with a tactical ballistic missile with a warhead packed with nuclear waste, Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported on Tuesday.
NBC News has not verified the claims by either party.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has issued regular warnings about the danger of fighting around a nuclear plant. He said in a statement on Friday that partial inspections revealed no evidence of mines or other explosives, but that he had not been granted access to the entire site.
This part of the world does not need to imagine what a nuclear catastrophe would be like.
About 340 miles northwest of Zaporizhzhia, the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant meltdown remains the worst of its kind on record.
Some 200,000 people were evacuated, radioactive material washed across the northern hemisphere and scientists say a 19-mile exclusion zone may not be safe for 24,000 years, the half-life of released plutonium-239. Although fewer than 50 people officially died, the collapse resulted in a “much higher than normal” rate of thyroid cancer among children in the area, according to the IAEA.
Comparisons are then unavoidable, particularly given that Zaporizhzhia is almost twice the size of Chernobyl and is in the midst of a modern ground war.
Many in eastern Ukraine have felt mounting panic this week, fueled by a fervent rumor mill about the popular messaging app Telegram, which some residents are checking overnight.
The country’s deputy defense minister, Hanna Maliar, said on Wednesday that emergency services in four regions had been conducting days of additional training to deal with “a possible terrorist attack” at the plant.
These fears were only assuaged last week when Russian-installed local government officials said they had evacuated 1,600 people, including 660 children, from the area around the plant.
The area has also seen what happens when a colossal piece of vital infrastructure is destroyed.
Last month, further down the Dnieper River, the Kakhovka dam broke, apparently after an explosion. flooding homes and forcing thousands of residents to flee while threatening “ecological catastrophe”.
Zelenskyy himself said that the muted international reaction to this (he blames Russia but its allies have not publicly apportioned the blame) “may incite the Kremlin to commit new evils.”
