CONCORD, NH — The Iowa Republican Party’s decision to hold its traditional presidential caucuses, the first in the nation, on January 15 would normally mean New Hampshire could go ahead and set its primary election date. But the Democrats’ decision to shift their nomination races in 2024 has left New Hampshire’s scheduling still unresolved.
New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan has broad authority to set the date of primaries to make sure it precedes primaries in other states. For years, that meant his predecessor Bill Gardner placed them a week after Iowa.
This year, Iowa Democrats have not said whether they will join Iowa Republicans in holding their caucuses on January 15. The Democratic National Committee stripped Iowa of its place on the list of four official early voting states, though it could still hold an early contest. that would result in partisan sanctions, including the possible loss of delegates. But it’s not when the Iowa Democrats meet that matters to New Hampshire, it’s as they make caucuses.
After major changes to the 2020 caucuses aimed at expanding access for potential caucus attendees, Iowa Democrats are talking about going further, including possibly adding a mail-in option for those unable to attend in person. For New Hampshire, that makes the Democrats’ Iowa “caucus” sound suspiciously like a primary, which could encourage Scanlan to lead New Hampshire by at least seven days, as required by Granite state law.
It all goes back to the Democrats’ decision to change their starting state lineup after vote-counting problems hit Iowa in 2020. South Carolina is set to hold the DNC’s first officially sanctioned primary on February 3, but New Hampshire officials are furious over the move. and determined to undermine it, no matter the punishment. The official DNC schedule would see New Hampshire and Nevada jointly hold the second primary after South Carolina.
According to Scanlan’s office, the Iowa announcement “gives New Hampshire room to schedule a first-in-the-nation primary” ahead of South Carolina’s Democratic primary.
But Scanlan is still “waiting for other pieces to fall into place” before setting the date, his office added.
Christopher Ager, chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, told NBC News that he hopes Scanlan “sets the date for January 23, unless the Iowa Democrats do something to rig the caucus.”
Scanlan is in no rush to announce the date of the primary. He told NBC News this week that he most likely won’t set a date until after the filing period, which could come as early as October. There’s precedent for that: The 2008 New Hampshire primary was the earliest, on January 8. Gardner, then secretary of state, announced the date just weeks earlier, long after the candidates had already filed.
New Hampshire Republicans would prefer to hold their primary in late January, after Iowa, rather than see Scanlan have to outbid Iowa due to maneuvering by Democrats. Republican state Rep. Ross Berry, who chairs the House Election Law Committee, said he is considering “contingencies” that could prevent it.
Berry said he is considering introducing legislation that would allow Scanlan to set two different primary dates, one for each party. He called it a “last resort option” that would give Scanlan a new tool if he makes a determination that the Iowa Democratic caucus is functionally the same as a primary.
“We don’t want to be caught unawares,” Berry said. “If the Secretary of State says, ‘You know what, I’m fine with Iowa mailing their stuff,’ we don’t have a problem, I don’t see any reason to change things,” she continued.
Separating each party’s primaries would be a first for New Hampshire, which has been holding presidential primaries since 1916 and has held the first primaries since 1920. But doing so would be the latest demonstration of how the tiny New England state, which prides itself on Being a place where underdog candidates can meet voters through retail and one-on-one politics, it has adapted to fight challenges to its prized status over the years.
The secretary of state’s office had no comment on Berry’s proposal. The state Legislature is not in session, so no new bill will be introduced until the fall.
Berry acknowledged the challenges of potentially holding two separate elections, but said it’s a small price to pay.
“The first primary in the nation generates a lot of commercial activity. Protecting him far outweighs the disadvantage of having to have two choices,” he said.
