Wagner’s boss has not been seen in public since the riot, only issuing an audio message last week defiantly stating that he never planned to topple Putin, but wanted to protect his fighters from being sucked into the defense ministry. Russian, whereupon he was involved in a bitter enmity that lasted for months.
Monday’s message is a “totally selfish narrative to engage in self-rehabilitation” for Prigozhin, said Rajan Menon, director of the grand strategy program at Defense Priorities, a Washington-based think tank.
“The bottom line is that he owes everything to the system. And while he is a critic of the system, he is a creature of the system,” Menon told NBC News.
“So the result of the revolt is that he can lose everything. They go after his property. There is a question of what happens to the Wagner group. He is an exile in Belarus… and I think now he is trying to present a narrative that rivals the government’s.”
While discrediting Prigozhin himself, the Kremlin has tried to appear merciful to Wagner’s fighters, vowing to stick to an agreement in which none of those who participated in the revolt will be prosecuted and those who did not mutiny will be allowed to join the regular army. .
But 10 days into the crisis, it is unclear how many fighters have joined or are preparing to join Prigozhin in so-called exile in Belarus, and how many may return to the front lines in Ukraine.
Wagner, in its original form, will not return to Ukraine, Menon said.
“Not as it was once constituted, and certainly not under Prigozhin’s leadership,” he said. With Prigozhin no longer in direct command, it is likely that it will split, with some signing contracts with the Defense Ministry while others will “go off and do whatever,” but Menon hopes the Kremlin will want to keep operations in place. Wagner’s foreigner.
Putin, polls and party
A Telegram channel affiliated with the mercenary group suggested on Sunday that recruitment was halted for a month “due to the temporary non-participation of PMC Wagner in the special military operation and transfer to the Republic of Belarus.”
However, there were signs of continued support among regular Russians for Wagner.
While the Kremlin’s propaganda machine has now turned on Prigozhin, the Russians still don’t seem to see Chief Wagner as the villain and traitor the Kremlin paints him to be.
TO survey by the Russian Field polling station found that before the riot, 55% of respondents had positive views on Prigozhin’s actions during the war in Ukraine. That number dropped to 29% after his revolt.
Despite the drop, it’s notable that almost a third still view it positively, though the proportion of people who view it negatively after community has nearly tripled.
The polling station said that men and respondents aged 30 to 44 more often expressed a positive attitude towards Prigozhin’s activities, while among the elderly there was an extremely high proportion of negative assessments.
It found that Putin’s approval ranking was unchanged for nearly 70% of those surveyed.
A similar survey conducted by the independent center Levada released on monday it also showed that support for the Russian leader has not changed, but attitudes towards Prigozhin have deteriorated sharply, with only one in five respondents supporting him after his revolt.
However, positive assessments of the Wagner fighters persist even after the riot, Levada said.
Gauging public opinion in Russia has become extremely difficult amid a harsh crackdown on free speech since the war in Ukraine began, leaving many too afraid to speak their minds, even anonymously.
Support for Wagner and Prigozhin was evident in the cheers and waves of joy from the public as they set out from Rostov-on-Don, the southern city they seized at the start of their mutiny.
That seemed to continue more than a week later.
A video shared on social media and verified by NBC News showed young people waving Wagner flags at a graduation concert in Moscow’s Gorky Park on Saturday. Proms in various regions of Russia, including Moscow, were postponed during the Prigozhin revolt for public safety reasons.
The alleged new message from Wagner’s boss came on the same day that his biggest enemy, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, first spoke out about the revolt.
Shoigu praised his military for “showing loyalty to the oath and military duty” during the mutiny, which he called “an attempt to destabilize the situation in Russia.” He said the “special military operation,” as the Kremlin calls its war in Ukraine, was not affected by the riot.
But while Shoigu’s position seemed secure, the whereabouts of one of Russia’s top military commanders remained unclear.
General Sergei Surovikin has yet to be seen in public since the Prigozhin revolt, and speculation about his fate abounds.
Russia’s leader has tried to rally the public despite the uncertainty.
On Tuesday, Putin reiterated his claim that the Russian people were “united like never before.”
