LONDON — President Joe Biden and transatlantic leaders will meet this week in Europe to consider how to deter Russia from Ukraine in a war nearing the 18-month mark, a critical time as the world watches closely after a riot. failed.
The White House message that Biden has left NATO “more united” than ever is likely to come under increasing scrutiny in the coming days, as leaders of the countries that make up the United Nations Treaty Organization North Atlantic clash over military spending, plans to expand the alliance, and who should lead it.
Biden’s five-day tour of Europe begins in London, where he met Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and King Charles III on Monday before traveling to Vilnius, Lithuania, for the start of a two-day summit aimed at bolstering a message of solidarity between NATO. members and strengthen support for kyiv.
A senior administration official said Biden is expected to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the summit on Wednesday.
The importance of the summit, established just 30 miles from Belarus, as a launching point for attacks on Ukraine has grown as the war dragged on and after an abortive mutiny by the leader of Wagner’s mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, against the Russian leadership.
Biden will deliver a speech on Wednesday that the White House says will highlight “how the United States, along with our allies and partners, is supporting Ukraine, upholding democratic values, and taking action to address global challenges.”
He will then travel to Finland, NATO’s newest member, for a Nordic defense summit.
It’s a trip that Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan promised would “showcase the president’s leadership on the world stage.”
However, divisions over Ukraine’s push for a clearer path to join NATO risk breaking Biden’s promise to revitalize and restore US alliances.
Biden anticipated the challenge in an interview that aired on CNN on Sunday, when he said he does not believe there is “unanimity in NATO on whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, right now, in the middle of a war. ”, and pointed to the fundamental agreement of the alliance that promises its members mutual defense in conflicts.
“For example, if you did that, then, you know, and I mean it, we are determined to compromise every inch of territory that is NATO territory.” biden said. “It is a commitment that we have all made no matter what. If the war continues, then we are all at war. We are at war with Russia, if that were the case.”
And Biden admitted his reservations about Ukraine’s desire for a faster path, saying, “I don’t think I’m ready for NATO membership.”
“I think it’s premature” to call for a vote now, he said, “because there are other requirements that have to be met, including democratization and some of those issues.”
The way he handles the issue could have legacy-defining results for Biden, said Daniel Fried, a former US ambassador to Poland.
“Ukraine is going to be the dominant issue at the summit: there is the question of how NATO plans to defend its eastern flank from Russian aggression, and then there is the question of NATO-Ukraine relations,” Fried said. “And there are risks for Biden.
“If the White House was initially concerned about a divided alliance, now the risk is that the United States will be seen as reticent and insecure,” he said, citing a growing consensus among NATO member leaders to push for a stronger alliance. and defined. guarantees for Ukraine.
“It’s not just the Baltic states,” Fried said, alluding to the differences that have sometimes pitted Ukraine’s staunchest supporters against other allies since the start of the war. “The risk is that the United States will waste much of the political capital that we have invested in the defense of Ukraine; we have done a lot at stake ”.
Biden and the leaders of the NATO countries do not need to hand Ukraine an invitation to bridge the gap, “but there must be clarity of vision,” Fried said. “They need enough strategic clarity so that the Ukrainians understand that if they do the right thing at home, they will end up protected by the NATO alliance.”
Christopher Skaluba, a security expert at the Atlantic Council, a foreign affairs think tank in Washington, who was a senior Defense Department official in the Obama administration, said: “It’s a question of alliance credibility. They have repeated this Bucharest statement like a mantra for 15 years. And now, after what Ukraine has been through, if you can’t find something that is more tangible for their path to membership, I think it’s a setback.”
Aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Sullivan told reporters the summit would offer an opportunity to “mark progress on the path toward Ukraine’s membership aspirations,” and transatlantic leaders are expected to discuss the issue directly with Ukraine. on the second day of the summit. when a new NATO-Ukraine defense council meets.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg cited the NATO-Ukraine Council and a multi-year non-lethal aid package to help modernize Ukraine’s forces among steps aimed at bringing Ukraine closer to NATO on Friday.
Fried argued that the Ukraine roadmap issue opens up opportunities for Biden, including the possibility of “a sizeable victory in Vilnius.”
Still, some are urging stricter caution.
Justin Logan, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, cited Biden’s reasoning for delaying Ukraine’s accession to NATO as a factor that must be considered now and in the longer term.
“Biden says we don’t want Ukraine in NATO today because that would mean NATO would be at war with Russia. But if the US and other countries don’t have enough at stake in Ukraine to fight Russia, why even consider adding it to the alliance? he said.
