DES MOINES, Iowa — When a group of 18 evangelical Christian voters gathered here to ponder whether they thought Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election, 15 of them raised their hands. But that does not mean that in January they will participate in the electoral assemblies of the former president.
That was one of the main findings of a focus group convened by Republican pollster Frank Luntz on the eve of the Family Leadership Summit, an evangelical gathering that drew a slew of non-Trump Republican presidential candidates to Iowa on Friday. .
Luntz assembled the focus group of Des Moines-area voters on behalf of Family Leadership using basic criteria: they had to consider themselves “conservative” or “very conservative,” attend church at least once a week, and identify as born-of- New Christian or Evangelical. It’s a group with enormous influence over the outcome of next year’s Iowa caucuses, and it’s a group that’s fond of Trump but not entirely wedded to him.
“It looks like at some point it swallowed a fifth grader who is always trying to get out. These insults towards people keep coming out of his mouth.” said Patti Parlee, 64, of Urbandale.
The recent Iowa caucuses prove that to win the state, candidates must first win over evangelicals. Sixty-four percent of voters in the 2016 Iowa caucus identified themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians. And Texas Sen. Ted Cruz led Trump with evangelicals by 12 points in 2016, according to the NBC News exit poll, propelling Cruz to an early victory.
Similarly, in 2012 and 2008, evangelical voters preferred caucus winners Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee.
So far this year, evangelicals nationally favor Trump: The former president drew 54% support from evangelicals in the most recent NBC News Republican national primary poll, compared to 26% for the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis. No one else was in double digits.
When asked who they thought was the most outspoken politician, Iowa focus group respondents most frequently cited Trump, DeSantis and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, of whom Bryan Moon, 61, said: “He could sell me anything and I would buy him. I believe him.”
And when tasked with defining what truth is, one respondent gave a simple answer: Jesus Christ. But these voters believe their faith and opinions are “under attack” as Republican presidential candidates try to show they are willing to stand up for them.
“I’ve been under attack in a way on Facebook,” said Tammy Negrete, 60, a retired dental hygienist from Ankeny. “I commented on our city by posting about gay pride month and literally got attacked by people who don’t even know me.”
David Bush, 61, a real estate developer, said: “There is a terrible misconception that Christians hate gays.” Karen L. chimed in, saying: “They’ve created this narrative that if you don’t approve of my lifestyle, you hate me and that’s not the truth. Anyone who has had a child knows that she can love someone without approving of what she has done.”
Some have admitted they are ready to walk away from Trump or never favored him, but more often because of personal or political differences than concerns about his electability.
“Trump seems [to] look, where the wind is blowing, and then drive in that direction, whether it’s the right direction or not,” said law student Thomas Kinley, 26. “He is too focused on what other people think and on being loved.”
In a state that prioritizes retail politics, some respondents pointed to Trump’s penchant for “trash talk” as a deterrent. He has recently come under fire for angry remarks about Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, who did not endorse him in the 2024 race but appeared with DeSantis at various campaign events.
“A lot of people say that politics is more important than personality, but I personally didn’t vote for Trump because I couldn’t get past personality,” Heather Schnathorst said. “I have three children and I want them to have a president that they can look up to and look up to and want to be like.”
Although many of the voters gathered by Luntz did not appear to be voting based on eligibility, some were quick to describe Trump’s vulnerabilities in the face of a possible rematch with President Joe Biden, including his potential difficulty attracting new voters beyond his base. and influence the independents. .
“Have you gained new voters since November 2020 until now? I mean, do you know anyone who now supports Trump who didn’t support him then? I mean, in my opinion, he’s just losing voters,” Kinley said.
While many remain undecided or open to alternative Republican candidates, Karen L. is unsure of the type of candidate she won’t support.
“I don’t want to hear them talk about working across the aisle because to me, that’s the code because I’m weak and I’ll do what the Democrats make me do. I am not going to stand up and defend my position,” she said.
Among a group of voters selected based on the strength of their convictions, some have lost faith in the former president and remain open to new Republican leadership.
“President Trump, I voted for you twice. I got unanimous support in my local caucus in 2020,” said David K. “But you can’t win this next election, one way or another.”
