The new image of inflation – Sectors – Economy
As of early February 2022, the breakeven rate of five-year consumer price index (CPI) inflation five years from now in the US bond market was around 2% per year, a figure which corresponds to a chain-weighted personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation forecast of 1.6% per year within 5 to 10 years. With inflation of 1.6% falling well below the US Federal Reserve's 2% target, I entered that month feeling pretty good about being on the "Transitional Team," or at least the "Team the Fed understood things” or in the “Team inflation expectations remain solidly anchored”. But then, later that month,…
