WASHINGTON — In 2020, Joe Biden won a narrow Electoral College victory with a decisive turnout of young voters. But as the president looks beyond his first term, many young voters aren’t satisfied, presenting a new challenge as he heads toward a likely rematch with former President Donald Trump in 2024.
Biden is at little risk of losing young Americans to Trump, who is far less popular with Gen Z and millennial voters. But can the president harness his anger to go out and push him to the top? Or will his perceived lack of progress cause them to stay home, making way for a Trump victory next year?
“The answer to this question will decide the election,” said John Della Volpe, director of polling at Harvard’s Kennedy School Institute of Politics, who specializes in the attitudes of young voters.
In a recent blog post, Della Volpe wrote that voters under the age of 30, who have been key to modern Democratic victories, now seem less likely to identify as Democrats, and instead align as independents. What’s worse for the party, fewer young voters see the policy as a “meaningful way to create change,” which he says has been a key indicator of youth turnout.
“Almost all the signs that gave me confidence in the historical levels of youth participation in 2018, 2020 and 2022 are now flashing red,” he wrote.
In 2020, Biden won 60% of voters under the age of 30, while Trump won 36%, according to NBC News exit polls. In addition, youth participation arose that year compared to 2016, helping Biden win the Electoral College by a margin of just 45,000 votes in three swing states.
Biden’s national approval rating with registered voters under the age of 35 is 51%, with a rating of 44% unfavorable, according to an NBC News poll conducted June 16-20. Young voter enthusiasm for Biden is limited: Just 9% of voters under 35 said they “strongly approve” of Biden’s performance. Among those who disapprove, 28% said they “strongly disapprove,” while 16% said they “somewhat disapprove.”
The Biden campaign indicated that it is taking nothing for granted and will meet with younger voters “wherever they are” to advocate for the president’s re-election.
“Young people are badly affected by the core issues of this election, driven by MAGA’s extreme agenda, which cuts costs for corporations but not indebted students, strips away fundamental rights, and fails to protect America’s youth. of our most urgent threats. like gun violence and climate change,” Biden campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz said. “President Biden and Vice President Harris are fighting for the future America’s youth deserve, and as Democrats did in 2020 and 2022, we will meet the youngest Americans where they are and turn their energy into action as part of our winning coalition of 2024”.
The Biden campaign plans to boost the contrast with Trump and recruit surrogates who are younger and popular with Generation Z and millennials to help make the case. They include Tennessee Rep. Justin Jones, a 27-year-old state legislator who was ousted by Republicans after protesting in support of gun limits, and US Rep. Maxwell Frost, a Florida Democrat from 26 years old, the youngest member. congressional
In an interview, Jones, who was reinstated in the Legislature in April, praised Biden for securing a bill to combat mass shootings, seeking “environmental justice” with a landmark climate law, passing a bill to address the “crisis of democracy” by closing loopholes to prevent stolen elections and announcing new steps to mitigate student debt after his previous actions were struck down by a conservative-leaning Supreme Court.
“I know that this administration sees these problems as crises. I know they feel the urgency to address these issues and I know they are using the tools they have,” Jones said. “When I look at where the accountability lies, I look at the Supreme Court and I look at this extremely dysfunctional Republican leadership in Congress.”
After quashing Roe v. Wade last year, the Supreme Court ended its last term with rulings that dealt a blow to LGBTQ rights, ended affirmative action on college admissions, and eliminated Biden’s student debt relief of up to $20,000 for student debt borrowers. low income. — all issues that resonate strongly with young voters.
The Biden campaign is also working with the Democratic National Committee, which called young voters “a critical part of our coalition” and said it is partnering with youth advocacy groups, holding training sessions on voter mobilization. and offering resources for interested students and graduates to get involved.
The Trump campaign says Biden has failed to deliver with young voters.
“Joe Biden has failed on every single one of his campaign promises to younger Americans, except for his promise to saddle these generations with more debt,” Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller said. . “On the contrary, President Trump will reduce inflation and create better opportunities for younger Americans like we’ve never seen before.”
Among voters under the age of 35, Trump registered a favorable rating of 23% and an unfavorable rating of 68% in the NBC News poll in June.
“Don’t underestimate the power of an angry generation,” said Antonio Arellano of the liberal youth voting group NextGen America. American history. We are hosting on college campuses, universities, pride events and festivals, and community gatherings across the country, particularly in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona.”
“There is this perception that young people are going to be disenfranchised, disillusioned, discouraged and not vote,” he said, calling it a “recurring” narrative that has proven false in recent cycles, including 2020 and 2022.
Some Biden allies say he’s used to being underestimated, citing criticism of his handling of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, and arguing that he got it right when the Democrats outperformed in the 2022 midterm elections.
Jones warned that while “Trump is the antithesis of what our generation stands for,” Democrats can’t rely on that to mobilize young voters.
“We cannot simply base ourselves on what we oppose. We have to continue for what we are for, ”she said. “I have been hoping to see the Biden campaign do this. Running for an economy where young people are not saddled with hundreds of thousands of debts; running for a habitable planet. … Protect children, not guns.”
Jones recently visited the White House, along with his two colleagues from Tennessee who were targeted for expulsion after violating decorum to protest gun violence.
Johnson said his message to Biden was: “We have to do things out of the ordinary.”
How did the president and White House staff react?
“They just listened,” Jones said. “I appreciate you listening to us.”
