The word of summer is “extreme”.
extreme flooding. Extreme heat. extreme smoke.
Scientists have predicted weather extremes in report after report as the Earth warms as humans continue to spew fossil fuel pollution into the atmosphere.
And now, it’s here, with a dizzying amount of broken records and heartbreaking scenes.
The images—a smoky sepia-filled Central Park, kayaks bobbing through the streets of Montpelier, Vermont, and packed cooling centers in Arizona—still shock even those expecting them.
“This is all entirely consistent with what greenhouse gas warming is doing and in line with the trends we expect,” said Ben Zaitchik, a professor in the department of Earth and planetary sciences at Johns Hopkins University, about extreme events. “There’s still something that feels surprising, emotionally surprising, when you see this happen with greater frequency and severity.”
Researchers have not yet calculated how much climate change has altered the odds that specific weather events will cause disruption this summer. But scientists see the fingerprints of climate change sizzling across the landscape this summer, and it’s playing out like a car wreck you can’t take your eyes off. The events have disrupted communities in nearly every region of North America, claiming lives, damaging homes, and robbing the simple pleasures of summer.
This is what stands out:
- Earth had its hottest days on record for average global temperatures earlier this month, which some scientists believe is a sign that El Nino is taking hold and rising temperatures on top of background warming from climate change.
- sea surface temperatures has been a record since mid-march. A prolonged marine heat wave is cooking the waters off the coast of Florida, raising ocean temperatures 5 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, according to Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric Sciences. and Earth from the University of Miami. The waters of the Florida Keys recently reached record temperatures. The oceans have absorbed about 90% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases.
- Canada saw more acres burned this year by wildfires than any other year on record. A record heat wave this spring primed northern Canada for the fires that have burned more than 37,000 square miles of land so far. according to the Canadian Interagency Wildland Fire Center. Scientists predict that wildfires will increase in North America as temperatures rise and the likelihood of fire behavior increases. The accumulation of fuels from fire suppression and forest management practices is also contributing to the problem.
- Wildfires in Canada have twice sent smoke to the US. A Stanford University analysis found it was the worst year for wildfire smoke exposure per US resident since at least 2006, when wildfires data became available for the first time. There will likely be more smoke this summer.
- A heat wave centered on South Texas ravaged the state relentlessly for more than two weeks in June and early this month. Del Rio faced 18 straight days of temperatures above 100 F, according to data from the National Weather Service. Nighttime temperatures provided little relief. Climate change is changing baseline temperatures, making heat waves more frequent and intense.
- Heavy rainfall hit the Northeast earlier this week, inundating communities like Montpelier and dumping up to 9 inches of rain on Vermont cities in a two-day storm, according to weather service data. Nearly a fifth of the rain these areas expect in a typical year fell in two days. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, making extreme rainfall more likely.
- California’s massive snowpack melt inundated more than 110,000 acres of prime California farmland, sinking tractors, power equipment and farms. A dozen atmospheric river storms packed snowpack about three times more than is typical this winter in the southern Sierra mountains. Because a warmer atmosphere can absorb more water vapor, atmospheric rivers are expected to become stronger as the world warms.
- Phoenix officials said they were spooked for residents without shelter when the city reported its 13th day above 110 F on Thursday as a prolonged heat wave baked the southwestern desert, according to weather service data. The weekend forecast calls for high temperatures of 118 F in Phoenix. Death Valley, California, could approach 130 F.
In recent years, scientists have conducted attribution studies to determine how unlikely a weather event would have been in the colder climate of the past.
Scientists determined that a June 2021 heat wave in the Pacific Northwest would have been “virtually impossible” were it not for the impacts of climate change. TO A peer-reviewed study found that the event would have been at least 150 times less likely if global temperatures hadn’t gotten so hot due to human activity.
The events of this year have not yet been analyzed so thoroughly. But scientists see the chain of events as part of a larger, undeniable pattern of extremes that is intensifying over time.
“The individual drivers of these events, of course we can’t say anything about them at the moment, but overall, they are consistent with what we would expect,” said Deepti Singh, an assistant professor in the State University of California’s school of environment. Washington in Vancouver. , said of record temperatures. “It is not surprising that we are seeing these simultaneous widespread extreme heat events in multiple regions of the world.”
Temperature records are also dropping outside of North America. The “Cerberus” heat wave gripped Europe on Friday, with temperatures in Greece expected to hit 110 F. The European Space Agency warned that Europe’s all-time high temperature of 120 F could be exceeded as early as next week. The heat probably contributed to more than 61,000 deaths in Europe last summer, according to a new study. New daily rainfall records were set this week in the Kyushu region of Japan, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
“It’s not just in isolated places,” McNoldy said. “Records are being broken in many parts of the world at the same time and it’s not just random. It is not a day here, a day there, it is prolonged”.
So far, the pace of climate change is outpacing the ability of most communities to manage.
“I am very anxious about the start of the summer season,” Singh said. “The fact that we are seeing so many fatalities and such extreme impacts means that we are not prepared and adapted to the conditions that we are experiencing.”
