When the works began in 2021, a statement from Enel Colombia reported how the Windpeshi wind farm would be one of the 16 renewable energy source projects that would be developed in the department of La Guajira. Located in the jurisdiction of Uribia and Maicao, not far from the border line with Venezuela, the place would have 41 wind turbines that would provide enough electricity to meet the consumption of some 340,000 homes.
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Two years later, it is clear that the story turned out to be different. Last Wednesday, a statement from the same firm, informed about the indefinite suspension of the executions “given the impossibility of guaranteeing the construction rhythms of the project, due to the constant paths of fact and high expectations that exceed the framework of action of the Organization ”.
Put another way, heThe blockades that prevented the passage of materials and workers increased in frequency, in addition to requests of a different order. If at the beginning it was mandatory to stop for half of the working days, in recent months the proportion had risen to 60 percent with the consequent rise in total costs: from 240 to 400 million dollars.
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Everything indicates that, in the coming weeks, similar announcements will appear by other companies that wanted to take advantage of the unique natural conditions of the northern part of the national territory. In fact, those who know about the matter maintain that with the exception of two small facilities that already operate, the rest is to be seen.
Specifically, plants with a capacity of 2,800 megawatts —a figure higher than what Hidroituango will contribute— are at risk of not being built, including a dozen that have firm commitments to the interconnected system for 2,069 megawatts. Faced with an initial schedule that spoke of successive inaugurations from 2022, what there is now is a string of question marks. The reasons in some cases are similar to the one reported above, but there is also uncertainty about the Colectora I transmission line, which would allow electricity from a good number of wind farms to be brought to the national grid. Due to the prior consultation and licensing process, the cables that may have been laid in their entirety last year will possibly be delayed until beyond 2025.
The way things are going The “fair, safe, reliable and efficient energy transition” is in question, to which Gustavo Petro frequently refers. The bases of the development plan, recently converted into a law of the Republic, maintain that “the country will accelerate the penetration of renewable energies in the matrix and the energy system will have infrastructure and advanced technology that meets the demand.” However, in light of events it seems clear that the opposite will occur.
The challenge of the territory
Although there are several new generation projects underway in other parts of the Colombian geography, it is indisputable that the northernmost part of South America has exceptional wind and solar radiation conditions. Consequently, any windmill or photovoltaic panel is more efficient at producing kilowatts than if it is located in other places where these patterns fluctuate widely throughout the calendar.
The ideal points, identified to place towers of about 80 meters in height with three blades of more than 40 meters, are located or are neighbors of the Wayuu Indigenous Reservation of Alta and Media Guajira, which has an extension of more than one million hectares. As the renowned anthropologist Weildler Guerra explains, they are sandy lands, with little vegetation and trupillo trees that grow on a semi-desert soil.
Nearly 380,000 members of an ethnic group live there that is dedicated to work such as fishing in the sea, cattle grazing, salt extraction, small agriculture or the elaboration of handicrafts in rural areas. Low drinking water coverage is the norm in a territory where the percentage of children who die from causes associated with malnutrition is the highest in the country.
In light of these circumstances, it could be believed that the arrival of millionaire investments would be welcomed by a community in need of progress. On paper, the prior consultation establishes the mechanisms to reach collective and individual agreements, both with regard to payments for the usufruct of certain areas, as well as with respect to compensation and mitigation works.
However, in practice the challenges are much more complex. For example, the fact that a family occupies an area, nevertheless means that it can dispose of it. With the crisis in Venezuela, many of those who lived on the other side of the border have returned to claim areas with which they have ties, in the face of which agreements are ignored and divisions arise.
In addition, there is a clear clash of cultures. According to Guerra, “it is not an economic conflict but an ontological one.” He clarifies that “In Wayuu cosmology, the winds are plural beings with different temperaments: from Jepirachi, the lover who comes from the northeast, to Jepiralujutu, the trickster, passing through Wawai, the hurricane that destroys everything”.
And he adds: “It is understandable that putting obstacles in the path of the wind creates concerns, such as altering the landscape, apart from the fear of touching sites considered sacred.” For this reason, he advises, dialogue is required that must be based on knowledge and the creation of trust “bearing in mind that many people were made to lose their innocence in the past.” Given this conception, the matter goes much further than making a quick negotiation, focused on money. “A renewable energy is not always clean if the social processes are not adequate,” says the anthropologist born in Riohacha.
For their part, the companies say that they have abided by the established rules of the game and that they have acted with the best will. “We are the ones on the ground and obviously what we are interested in is good relations with the community,” says an executive from a company involved.
The complaints of both are addressed to state entities. Lack of accompaniment, choice of indigenous authorities that are not recognized by all and messages that instead of calming the waters stir them, are some of the criticisms.
“Instead of helping, the Government is either absent or entangles things more, among other things because the ministries adopt contradictory positions,” adds the manager. As if that were not enough, social unrest is skyrocketing, with a 41 percent rise in the number of blockades and mobilizations so far this year, according to reports by the Ombudsman’s Office.
For the expert Juan Benavides, “many communities see the construction of a new work as an opportunity to make visible claims that have been dammed up for decades in terms of local infrastructure and productive projects.” And he adds: “Companies must be part of the solution to bring progress to these communities, but the basic responsibility lies with the State.”
causes and effects
All of the above makes untangling the skein particularly challenging. Although in the specific case of La Guajira, Weildler Guerra insists that “the Government still has time to do things right”, the solutions will take much longer than expected.
As a consequence, delays translate into serious threats. The first is the generation capacity of the electrical system, restricted just as the El Niño phenomenon approaches.
Although about 1,500 additional megawatts have entered the system in recent years, it is much less than expected in the face of very dynamic demand. According to data from XM, in 2020 16 percent of what was planned arrived, in 2021 7 percent and in 2022 28 percent. This year is crucial, since 6,600 megawatts must be incorporated, but that remains to be seen, since barely a sixth of what was budgeted is expected in the first quarter.
It is clear that the problem is not only restricted to wind farms, but the challenge is much broader. Immediately, the risk is that an unforeseen event will condemn the country to electricity rationing at the beginning of 2024, since the thermal plants will have to come fully into operation to lend a hand to the hydroelectric ones, restricted by the lack of water.
Even if the emergency caused by the coming drought can be overcome without major disruptions, doubts about the future persist. The main reason is different decisions or announcements by the Petro administration, which together discourage the arrival of new investments, fundamental in a country that not only aspires to transform its generation matrix, but also needs to substantially expand the offer.
The list ranges from the removal of three quarters of the tax and tariff benefits, to the increase in transfers for gross sales of energy in areas with greater wind and sun mechanisms. Added to this is the possible elimination of restrictions on vertical integration or the eventual extension of the time it takes to obtain an environmental license.
But perhaps the most serious of all is the temporary position in the Energy and Gas Regulation Commission, today with the majority of officials on commission. Said circumstance eliminates in practice the autonomy of what should be a technical and independent body, subjecting it to the will of the executive. What is at stake is nothing less than the certainty around the rates that can be charged in the future and the credibility built over decades.
This being the case, the probability increases that the new cargo auction for capacity that will close in August, crucial to guarantee expansion at the end of the decade, will result in few bidders. The appetite to put hundreds of millions of dollars into a project when there are doubts about legal stability and profitability is yet to be seen, will be rather scarce.
Under the assumption that the private sector does not show enthusiasm, Ecopetrol’s letter emerges as champion of the energy transition, in combination with its subsidiary ISA. Once the legal obstacles have been removed, the company could get into generation, but this requires financial muscle, additional skills to those of today and a lot of management.
Wrong bets will make it impossible to achieve the much talked about energy transition, with a view to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and becoming carbon neutral by mid-century. Calculations from the Regional Center for Energy Studies show that Colombia would need to substantially increase its current installed capacity: tripling water, multiplying solar 13 times and wind power 15 times, among others, to make the desire to produce green hydrogen a reality.
Such an ambitious purpose requires knowing in detail where we are going. At the end of last year, the Minister of Mines, Irene Vélez, promised that the roadmap would be ready this month, a term that has now just been extended to next February.
So much uncertainty coincides with a report on oil and gas reserves described as “disappointing” by Amylkar Acosta. “We are aimless,” adds a true connoisseur of the matter.
Faced with so many alerts, what proceeds is to amend the plan. This includes rescuing generation projects that are probably sunk, promoting the expansion of transportation infrastructure, sending the right signals to the electricity market, and reactivating hydrocarbon exploration with an emphasis on gas, something that is achieved through work and effort, not from slogans.
Otherwise, the scenario would be catastrophic and an implosion would become feasible: frequent blackouts, capital outflows, loss of self-sufficiency, and lower economic growth. “Without energy security there is no energy transition,” the president of Acolgen, Natalia Gutiérrez, frequently repeats. For the good of Colombians, it is worth listening.
RICARDO AVILA
Special for EL TIEMPO
