No communication media in Colombia ignored this week’s news, according to which during January not a single hectare of coca was eradicated in the national territory. Beyond the explanations given by the Police, in the sense that contracting issues would have prevented them from starting to carry out this work on time, what happened represents a break with what is customary in a country that fights against illicit crops.
The authorities maintain that the guard has not been lowered on this front. According to the Ministry of Defense statistics, throughout the first month of the year the number of laboratories destroyed rose, as well as the seizures or immobilization of aircraft associated with drug trafficking. “We are strengthening interdiction activities,” stressed General Hélder Fernán Giraldo, commander of the Military Forces.
However, more than one analyst watches the development of events with concern. After the United Nations revealed that in 2021 the area cultivated with coca reached an all-time high of 204,000 hectares, the probability increases that another cycle of expansion has begun that would lead to a greater global supply of cocaine.
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If this is the case, and unless strategies aimed at hitting other links in a huge business are strengthened, the flow of resources from this activity will continue to finance multiple armed groups and promote money laundering. The destabilizing capacity of this type of “bonanzas” is well known and it is enough to look at the recent history of the country to conclude that it does not lead to anything good.
Daniel Mejía, associate professor at the Universidad de los Andes and author of several publications on the subject, makes it clear that this is not a minor issue: “I can affirm, without fear of being wrong, that the weight of drug trafficking in the Colombian economy is by the order of 4.5 percent of the Gross Domestic Product, concentrated in a few criminal groups that have great power of damage”.
Meanwhile, the large consuming nations are concentrating their gaze on opioids, whose consumption continues to rise and are a real public health problem. In the case of the United States, fentanyl—whose power far exceeds that of morphine—causing two-thirds of the 108,000 overdose deaths recorded in 2021 (methamphetamines are responsible for the rest).
another way
The number is equivalent to 25 percent of the deaths left by the pandemic in that same year. However, while the infections and deaths associated with covid-19 are now a fraction of those of that time, the emergency caused by chemical compounds does not cease.
All of the above points to something in which not a few leaders and most experts agree: the war against illegal drugs is a colossal failure. After billions of dollars spent on interdiction and law enforcement, as well as countless lives sacrificed, the problem shows a growing trend.
For this reason, the voices in favor of legalization are louder, which would be accompanied by the proper regulatory framework to avoid abuses and distortions. Those who abandon the idea underline that in this way the income captured by criminals would disappear and the authorities could develop policies for the prevention and management of addictions.
As Gustavo Petro has said in various international forums, Colombia is a firm supporter of the initiative. But, just as many share the proposal, it is also true that the global community is deeply divided on the matter, since powers like China or India —to mention just two examples— are in favor of absolute prohibition.
Without ignoring that in a large part of the West, progress has been made towards the decriminalization of consumption, or that the cultivation of marijuana for recreational purposes is allowed in various latitudes, humanity is still a long way from reaching a consensus. Even the polls show that opinion in different democracies is wary of a greater opening, thus accepting some pilot experiences.
Because of this, no country dares to take the plunge unilaterally, fearing that it might become some kind of pariah. The spectrum of sanctions of all kinds or limitations on the mobility of citizens leads to a kind of labyrinth with no exit, in which undesirable outcomes abound.
Even if the outlook is depressing, you have to accept that certain scenarios are worse than others. For Colombia, to sit idle would be to go against its own interests, given the multiple ramifications that arise from the scourge of cocaine.
Having any illusions that the current challenges are going to disappear or are declining is not valid given the information to the contrary. For example, the opioid boom is only a very partial substitute for heroin demand, but in reality it is a major headache.
To begin with, the number of users —61 million people on the planet, according to the United Nations— doubled between 2010 and 2020. In addition, compounds of this type are mixed with other drugs. Reports from New York indicate that for fentanyl-attributable overdose deaths in 2021, 40 percent of autopsies revealed combined cocaine ingestion.
activity continues
Data like this dispels the impression that the business associated with white powder is going through a crisis. On the contrary, the UN maintains that the 21 million consumers it has on five continents suggests a permanent long-term increase in its use.
Obviously, the restrictions caused by the presence of the coronavirus promptly depressed the market for what is described as a drug that is inhaled in social spaces. But once the distancing period is over, the parties are back and with them the intention of making up for lost time.
While that happens, drug traffickers maintain the objective of reaching more places. Without ignoring that the main destinations are the same, since North America concentrates half of the dispatches and Europe an additional 30 percent, Asia, Africa and Oceania show great dynamics.
Australia, to cite a specific case, is the place in the world where the proportion of individuals over 14 years of age who report having used cocaine is highest: 4.2 percent in 2019, according to the UN. Although the characterization of the users speaks of moderate use habits, the point is that the geographical distance is not an obstacle for the merchants of illicit products.
Such a truth affects Colombia, which in 2020 achieved a 61 percent share in the global manufacture of the alkaloid. The rest, shared between Peru, Bolivia and, to a lesser degree, Ecuador, gives a manufacturing capacity of close to 2,000 tons that year.
Such figures will surely change when the total statistics are updated. Only in the Colombian case would the largest cultivated area have raised production to 1,400 tons per year, which is achieved by processing more than 200,000 tons of coca leaf.
Satellite maps confirm that the main cultivation areas are in Norte de Santander, southern Bolívar and Córdoba, northeastern Antioquia, as well as Cauca, Nariño and Putumayo. Caquetá, Guaviare and Meta, in comparison, weigh much less in the final accounts, although they appear on the map.
Around the sowing areas, the other links in the chain emerge, concluding in the high-purity white powder that is obtained after a series of chemical processes. The discussion about how much those in charge of the process receive never ends and more than one academic is left with the value of a thousand dollars per kilo at the door of the laboratory.
where duel
However, Daniel Mejía says that “Colombian drug traffickers sell the drug once it is in a Pacific port, on the border with Venezuela or taking it out through Ecuador.” He adds that at that point “the price can fluctuate between two and seven thousand dollars per kilogram, with which their global income is much higher than many think.”
It is worth clarifying that these revenues should not be calculated based on gross production, but must be obtained net after seizures, which amounted to 671 tons in 2022, sAccording to the Ministry of Defence. The departments with the highest volumes were Nariño, Bolívar and Valle del Cauca, although operations are generally concentrated in coastal and border areas.
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Given the impact that these entries have on producing areas, security and the economy in general, Colombia cannot ignore the risks that an illegal activity of such a size can exert on its stability. Knowing that it is necessary to promote the international debate regarding a different approach to the drug problem, in the meantime the fight must continue, since it is not an option but an obligation to defend the State and the institutions.
In this regard, Professor Mejía states that the strategy to be followed “must not be strengthened in the fight against coca leaf crops, without ignoring the advantages of voluntary eradication programs.” The reason “is that it doesn’t even tickle drug traffickers. That is why it is necessary to attack the strong links in the chain, something that consists of destroying crystallizers and laboratories, disrupting the supply of chemical precursors and strengthening the tools to combat money laundering and expediting asset forfeiture procedures”.
Apart from the above, there are interdiction operations. As the expert affirms, it is much more effective to seize a shipment of cocaine than to uproot miles of bushes, with all that this implies for peasants who do not have many subsistence options.
Thus, one must not be misled about what to do on the ground, while using diplomacy and building alliances inside and outside the continent that will eventually lead to another approach towards the best way to deal with this evil. Internal threats cannot be ignored either, since the policy of ‘total peace’ cannot lend itself to criminals doing their thing if there are withdrawals of the public force.
In parallel, it is a valid idea to launch processes such as the convening of a working group to examine the policy of legalization, based on reality and not on fallacies or ideological biases, according to what Juan Gabriel Tokatlián said on Wednesday in this newspaper. Contributions such as the document presented in November by the Global Commission on Drug Policy need to be considered because, as the title of the letter says, they are part of the “path towards fair regulation.”
For things to work, it is essential that Gustavo Petro prove that he has the capacity to convene different sectors of the population to reach consensus on this front. If, on the contrary, the government decides to ignore those who seem different, another opportunity to move forward will have been lost, while Colombia once again becomes part of the problem that is born of record numbers of cocaine production.
And that, to tell the truth, does not suit anyone. Only to those interested in the fact that the usual vicious circle is perpetuated, while some are distracted and believe that the cocaine elephant has disappeared from the room, when in reality it is still very present.
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