The dollar in the Colombian interbank market continues on Monday to lose ground against the Colombian peso. Only at the beginning of this day, the first of this week, the US currency lost another 17.4 pesos, since the price paid for a single dollar in that ‘start’ was 3,954 pesos. The average trading rate in the first half hour of operations is 3,949 pesos, according to the records of the Electronic Trading System (SET-FX) of the Colombian Stock Exchange (BVC).
(Also read: The three reasons that will keep the dollar weak in the remainder of 2023)
However, the negotiation of the dollar in Colombia has reached a minimum price of 3,938 pesos this Monday, that is, 33 pesos below the representative market rate (TRM) of 3,971.38 pesos in force for the day.
Market analysts have insisted that the current situation, both local and international, suggests that the US currency will remain weak in the coming months and amid much volatility.
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The Minister of Finance himself, Ricardo Bonilla, EL TIEMPO told him that the exchange rate is reaching pre-pandemic levels and that the markets are understanding that the Government is making a fiscal adjustment.
“I think we are stabilizing. The country cannot stand a revaluation… The country is not interested in a greater revaluation”, the minister told Yamid Amat, without committing himself to fixing a specific exchange rate that he wants to reach.
external forces
In the last month, the currency has fallen pesos from 197.5 pesos, and so far this year more than 838 pesos.
According to Felipe Campos, manager of Economic Research at Grupo Alianza, the dollar worldwide continues to fall with the expectation that next year the United States central bank, the Federal Reserve (FED) will lower its interest rates as inflation adjusts in that country.
“As the dollar continues to weaken, Latin America will do much better. These forces form, we see a potential, in fact the dollar has not fallen much, barely two or three percent in the year and if globally it falls 5 or 10 percent, this is enormous potential for the region and for Colombia to recover lost ground in this process it could drop even more”, explains the analyst.
Internally, the analyst considers that social reforms and regional elections can help this situation, although he considers that regardless of the results, in electoral matters, the market will continue to reduce the political role in the behavior of the dollar.
“The most important thing in this political journey is that the government has been playing under government rules and that is important, that short-term investors are not so focused on whether the pension reform or the elections will have a particular effect, but that the rules are respected, that is the most important thing,” Campos insisted.
In this sense, he believes that the dollar will be in a new range, perhaps in the post-pandemic range of 3,400 pesos seen before the electoral shock, that will be the one seen in the next two semesters.
