Crisis is a word that the Royal Spanish Academy of Language defines as «profound change with important consequences in a process or situation». Undoubtedly, the term reflects the sentiment that has spread through various sectors of the Colombian economy as a result of decisions already adopted by the Petro administration or readjustments that it wants to promote.
After the lethargy typical of the Christmas season and the start of the year, the signs of momentous transformations appeared from the second week of January. in such a way, areas such as road infrastructure, hydrocarbons and electricity, entered a state of alert.
(Also read: The challenges that the new president of Ecopetrol will have, according to Felipe Bayón).
The list does not end there. During a meeting that he held last Thursday with representatives of community action boards in the Boyacá municipality of Duitama, the President specified his objectives: «what starts today, in the phase of this government, is to present the reforms to the Congress of the Republic to re-guarantee the rights of Colombian men and women» in pensions, health, public services and labor regulations.
Nothing, in general terms, is out of the script released on the occasion of the electoral campaign a year ago. Perhaps out of disbelief, or perhaps because of the hope that the president would realize the cost that several of his initiatives could have, segments of opinion expected proposals of a more moderate nature.
But Petro hasn’t budged one iota from his original beliefs, at least on the issues mentioned. Supported by the numbers of the polls that still give it a wide margin of favorability and a legislative majority that makes it possible to pass almost any law in the Capitol, a second part begins that includes a new drawing of boundaries between what the sector can do private and the powers of state agents.
In the intermission, there is the purpose of demonstrating to the population that the Casa de Nariño cares about their well-being. The reduction of the Soat rate for motorcycles with less displacement, the freezing of the value of highway tolls or the planned intervention in electricity billsThese are measures that arouse applause among users and are seen immediately.
Unlike variations that will have more or less long transition periods, here the result is tangible and serves another additional purpose. This is to consolidate the domination of the Historical Pact in the elections for governors and mayors that will take place next October.
The objective is essential for a left that seeks to establish itself in power and of which the political reform that will facilitate the collusion between the Executive and the Legislative is a part. To achieve this goal, the formula of anything goes is used: from persuasion to the well-known use of clientelism and public resources, which even includes that the money is distributed through popular organizations.
(Also read: Ecopetrol: what comes for the company with the departure of Felipe Bayón).
Doubts on the order of the day
While voices will abound that this is a much more democratic way of doing things, the dangers of the new “spread the jam across the toast” way are many. Apart from corruption and the waste of state funds, there are imminent risks related to fiscal stability and the very health of the economy.
Some are already present. In a few days the project to add budget will be known through which the Ministry of Finance will propose spending some 22 trillion pesos more, compared to what was originally approved for the 2023 validity. about 1.7 trillion, after a change in the Issuer’s accounting policy.
Unless the tariff backlog created can be recovered in the future, the Nation will be left with a long-term liability
If there was any hope that part of that sum would be destined to reduce the debt or cut the deficit, it was buried by the need to cancel what was related to the Soat and the tolls that, together, reached nearly three trillion euros. pesos. Unless the tariff backlog created can be recovered in the future, the Nation will be left with a long-term liability.
Apart from what has been done, it means that a bill that should be paid by whoever travels on a specific highway has to be assumed by all Colombians, a big question mark appears regarding the viability of the concession model. This will be even more questionable if, in addition, the Ministry of Transport revises the agreed formula regarding the determination of trips on the grounds that the profitability of the concessionaires is excessive.
It may be that the Government imposes its points of view and that it manages to defend in court what in the opinion of different lawyers is a legal outburst. In any case, the message that the originally established rules of the game can be accommodated to the will of the administration on duty will be tremendously detrimental.
The shadow that hangs over the Bogotá metro deserves special mention. As became clear last week, changing the layout of part of the first line—from elevated to underground—will substantially increase both the value and the time required to complete the works.
Although the mayor’s office has the last word, there is no doubt that the Casa de Nariño can hinder the construction process. It is no secret to anyone that the design carried out by Enrique Peñalosa is considered by Gustavo Petro as a personal affront. So much so that the insistence on reconsidering the largest engineering undertaking in the country’s history may end up going beyond technical, economic or expediency criteria.
If discretion is imposed on the signed contracts, the message outward will be negative. In the worst case, re-attracting investors or entities willing to finance large-scale projects in Colombia will become a challenge. In addition, when the answer is affirmative, the work will be more expensive, since uncertainty has its price and would be compensated with higher interest.
the light flickers
As if the above were not enough, the alarms are going off in the companies that make up the links in the chain of the electricity sector. The decision for the President of the Republic to directly assume the functions exercised by the public service regulation commissions is equivalent to an institutional earthquake that will be accompanied by countless aftershocks.
As explained, the determination was made before the evolution of energy rates that in 2022 increased well above the inflation rate. This behavior would supposedly not be justified, since the reservoirs were full due to the La Niña climatic phenomenon, with which there was water to generate full capacity.
However, a detailed analysis shows a more complex picture. The recovery of tariff arrears typical of the pandemic era, together with a formula tied to the evolution of the producer price index and the particular conditions acted for consumers on the Atlantic Coast —who assume energy losses on their bill and the investments to recover the network— allow us to understand what happened.
the quality of service will begin to deteriorate and the probability of rationing will increase more and more
(Also: Uncertainty rounds the electricity sector due to Petro announcements).
Under usual circumstances, remedies would have occurred at the institutional level with the involvement of experts and the leadership of a strong knowledge ministry. Now that is not the case, which opens up the possibility of defining things at the whim of the ruler.
Throwing away three decades of learning, just when next February 7 marks the 30th anniversary of the end of a forced rationing of electricity that lasted 343 days in the administration of César Gaviria, sounds like a cruel irony. Due to the blackout of that time, an architecture was started that has allowed more than one emergency to be overcome without homes and businesses being left in the dark.
Examine the demand scenarios, define the expansion route and establish the mechanisms so that the new generation units enter on time It is something that requires knowledge and specialization. Now that the transition to renewable and non-conventional energy sources is underway, the workforce is even more complex.
calculating, if the rate scenario is in doubt, investments threaten to stop. In the short term, most people will applaud that the electricity bill will go down.
But after months, or a few years, the quality of the service will begin to deteriorate and the probability of rationing will increase more and more. Only at that moment, when it is already too late, will the population once again understand that phrase that states that «the most expensive energy is the one you don’t have.»
Apart from wanting to score points against the opinion that complains that tolls or electricity are very expensive, here appears a vision with a clear ideological bias. This consists of rejecting the presence of private companies in the provision of public services and, in particular, the profit motive. Health and pensions also enter the list, the management of which, according to the well-known positions of the left, should not be a business.
Thus, in Gustavo Petro’s ideal world, the State would be the great provider, be it kilowatts or specialized medical care. Obviously the president is not alone. A good part of the political class accompanies him, as the mayor of Barranquilla said on Friday when he longed for the return of Corelca, whose liquidation after countless corruption scandals was damaged in 2011.
Since there is neither the capacity nor the resources to assume so many functions, one option is to cut margins and eventually scare away individuals from a certain sector. Returning to road concessions and electricity, there are those who forecast the use of Ecopetrol and its subsidiary ISA to pick up those who leave or to undertake new ventures in which popular organizations, including peasants, Afro-Colombians and indigenous people, would intervene.
Any observer who knows the history of what happened to PDVSA under Hugo Chávez knows that the risk of introducing populism into it – just like what had been an exemplary company run by experts in the field before the Bolivarian Revolution – is real. For this reason, the announced retirement of Felipe Bayón from the presidency of the company described as the jewel in the crown of public assets gives rise to enormous concerns.
To date, the conglomerate has a serious board of directors whose continuity is key to allay fears. However, it is facing a profound transformation due not only to the fact that the oil window is gradually closing, but also because of the clean decisions of the Government to accelerate this transit by closing the door to the signing of new hydrocarbon exploration contracts. .
Giving Ecopetrol more responsibilities that are confused with government policy, just when it is carrying the heavy burden of the accounts that the Nation owes it for the deficit in the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund, would be very serious. Worse still would be working at a loss to fulfill social purposes, something that would threaten the country’s own fiscal stability.
It would not be too much, then, for the officials responsible for recent decisions and those that may come to read the sixth article of Law 610 of 2000, modified by article 126 of Decree 403 of 2020. This defines property damage as «the injury to public property represented in the impairment, decrease, damage, detriment, loss, or deterioration of public goods or resources, or to the interests of the State, produced by uneconomic, ineffective, inefficient and untimely fiscal management.»
Being wrong in a serious matter, if the rule of law and the division of powers survive, will have consequences. Because it is one thing to avoid the crises that arrive and another to provoke them.
RICARDO AVILA
Special for EL TIEMPO
