After oil fell below $75 in December, its lowest level in a year, international crude oil prices He kicked off 2023 with a bang thanks to the lifting of covid-19 restrictions in China.
While the price of intermediate oil from Texas (WTI) closed yesterday at $80.15 per barrel, the Brent reference for February delivery ended the day at $86.15.
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And it is that investors are optimistic with the reopening of chinawhich is the largest importer of oil, and they hope that the lifting of the reactive restrictions of the economy and, finally, will increase the demand for crude oil, especially during the New Year celebrations that will last until February 5.
Although in 2022, the economic activity of the Asian giant grew 3 percent, its lowest level in the last 40 years, for this 2023 the World Bank projects, for the moment, that the Chinese GDP recovers and expands by 4, 3 percent.
«What is driving oil prices is the reopening of China. We are seeing a very important rebound in mobility with train trips or the recovery of flights, both national and international. This reopening is expected to generate a significant rebound in the economy that consumes a lot of raw materials,» said José Ignacio López, director of Economic Research at Corficolombiana.
The Chinese authorities hope that with the easing of measures the economy will recover and grow.
Marcos R. Cristino. EFE
In fact, the International Energy Agency (IEA) It said last week that China’s reopening will boost global oil demand to a record 101.7 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, up 1.9 million bpd from 2022.
Like, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) Say that China’s oil demand will be made this year due to the recovery of covid-19 restrictions and will boost global growth. Specifically, it expects it to grow by 510,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 and for the world to increase by 2.2 bpd.
The second factor driving up international oil prices is the lower expectations of a recession in the United States. According to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics (Nabe, for its acronym in English), the probability that it will be in recession or fall this year has fallen in the last three months to 56 percent from a chance of almost two-thirds.
All this despite the fact that in recent days some pessimistic economic data for the US economy has been released, such as retail sales, which fell 1.1 percent in December, more than expected; or industrial production, which fell 0.7 percent in December. According to North American experts, they have to do with the fact that interest rates and high prices weighed on demand.
There is also the wave of mass layoffs in the United States. For example, Microsoft announced the departure of 10,000 employees.
