Sociopolitical conditions, economic growth and interest rates are the three factors that are being most taken into account when making investment decisions. investment right now.
This is established in the last Financial Opinion Survey (EOF)Prepared by Fedesarrollo and the Colombian Stock Exchange (BVC), which takes into account the expectations of analysts and portfolio managers.
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In the May survey, 69.2 percent of analysts expect an appreciation of the index MSCI Colcap in the next three months, while the remaining 30.8 percent say the index would lose value.
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The most attractive stocks to invest in right now say that they are those of Ecopetrol and ISAboth selected by 37.5 percent of analysts.
It is followed by the preferred share of Bancolombia (31.3 percent of those surveyed), the ordinary share of Bancolombia (25.0 percent) and the ordinary share of Corficolombiana (18.8 percent).
Compared to the previous month, a greater appetite of those surveyed for shares of the energy, oil, consumer and construction sectors.
The Colombian economy has experienced ups and downs in recent years, but discount events have become an important factor in its recovery.
rates and inflation
The next meeting where the Board of Directors of the Bank of the Republic The monetary policy decision will be made on June 30, 2023. Analysts expect the rate to remain at 13.25 percent in August 2023.
They also anticipate a reduction throughout 2023, reaching 12.00 percent in December 2023 and reaching 9.75 percent in May of next year.
According to the annual inflationin April it stood at 12.82 percent and most analysts believe that it will stand at 12.59 percent in May (in a range that will go between 12.51 and 12.70 percent).
By the end of the year, analysts expect inflation to drop to 9.15 percent (in a range between 9.00 and 9.85 percent).
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By the end of the year, analysts expect inflation to drop to 9.15 percent.
growth and dollar
What the consulted analysts are forecasting is that the country will grow in a range between 0.8 and 1.5 percent in 2023, with 1.1 percent as the median response.
By 2024 they expect the growth falls within a range of 1.8 to 2.5 percent, with 2.3 percent as the median response.
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Regarding the dollar, in April the exchange rate closed at 4,669 pesos with a monthly depreciation of 0.9 percent, reaching its maximum value for the month on April 30 (4,669 pesos) and its minimum value on April 14 (4,424 pesos).
In May, analysts believe that the exchange rate will be in a range between 4,521 and 4,626 pesos, with 4,589 pesos as the median response.
And by the end of 2023, they expect a rate of 4,600 pesos, which shows a decrease compared to the forecast of the previous month (4,690 pesos).
