After the series of declines, which at times led it to trade around 3,930 pesos, the price of the dollar in the interbank market for the second day of this week began its upward negotiation, to the point that its value was very close to 4,000 pesos, according to records of the Electronic Trading System (SET-FX) of the Colombian Stock Exchange (BVC).

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For a single dollar, a maximum price of 3,999 pesos has been paid this Tuesday, while the lowest value that has been registered in the second session of this week has been 3,952 pesos. So things, the average value of the US currency is around 3,985 pesos, that is, 36 pesos above the representative market rate (TRM) in force for today of 3,950, 58 pesos.

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Market analysts have been insisting that the current conditions of the national and international economy They will keep the exchange rate at low levels in the second semester, but will also warn about the volatility that will prevail in the Colombian exchange market.

Andrés Langebaek, director of Economic Studies at Grupo Bolívar, considers that the revaluation of the peso, as well as that of most emerging currencies, is the result of the devaluation of the dollar globally, which in turn is associated with analysts’ conviction that after the Fed’s rate increase —which we will see next week— there will be no further increases for a long time.

In your opinion, this devaluation trend of the dollar and the appreciation of emerging currencies could be reversed if there were a sharp fall in economic activity at a global level, which could trigger a flight to quality, that is, the search for safe investments by investors (US treasuries) that can put pressure on the value of the currency. However, he considers that this scenario is not very likely.

other forces

According to Felipe Campos, manager of economic research at Grupo Alianza, The dollar worldwide continues to fall with the expectation that next year the central bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve (FED) will lower its interest rates as inflation adjusts in that country.

«As the dollar continues to weaken, Latin America will do much better. These forces will increase, we see potential, in fact the dollar has not fallen much, barely two or three percent in the year and if it falls 5 or 10 percent globally, this is enormous potential for the region and for Colombia to recover the ground lost in this process, it can fall even more,» explains the analyst.

Internally, the analyst considers that social reforms and regional elections can help this situation, although he considers that regardless of the results, in electoral matters, the market will continue to reduce the political role in the behavior of the dollar.

«The most important thing in this political journey is that the government has been playing under the rules of the government and that is important, that investors in the short term are not so focused on whether the pension reform or the elections will have a particular effect, but that the rules are respected, that is the most important thing”, Campos insisted.