In a 2022 marked by the conflict in Ukraine, high inflation, lower growth and the persistence of the covid-19 pandemic, world trade suffered a sharp slowdown, which also impacted the region’s terms of trade.
In total, 25 of the 33 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean suffered a negative shock in their terms of trade; that is to say, The price of the products that they import increased more than that of those that exported. The only countries that had a positive impact are net fuel exporters like Colombia.
(Also read: How much does Colombia lose if trade relations with Guatemala break?)
After expanding 9.8 percent in 2021, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal) projects that the volume of world trade in goods would have grown 3.5 percent in 2022 and the situation will worsen since it will only eliminate 1 percent for this 2023.
In the region, what helped trade in goods was the increase in international oil prices. ECLAC estimates that the value of exports from Latin America and the Caribbean would have increased by an average of 20 percent in 2022, while imports would have increased by 24 percent.
(Also: Dollar: why is its value falling in Colombia and the world?)
Thanks to external sales of fuels, Colombia would rank as the third country in the region to register the highest rebound in exports in 2022, with an increase of 49 percent, as projected by ECLAC (see graph). At the moment, between January and November of last year, according to the latest data from Dane, sales abroad were 52,574 million dollars.
Leading the way is the Caribbean nation of Trinidad and Tobago, which would have closed the year with an increase of 69 percent of the value exported compared to the previous year, and is followed by Venezuela, whose external sales would have ended 2022 with a growth of 69 percent. percent. In fourth place would be Guyana, with 45 percent more than in 2021.
other important oil players like Ecuador and Bolivia they would also register increases over the regional average of 32 and 31 percent, respectively, according to ECLAC projections.
In contrast, most of those that export manufactures, minerals and metals, and agricultural products would end 2022 with increases close to the average for the region (20 percent) and in some cases lower. For example, the external sales of Mexico -a great exporter of manufactures- would grow 16 percentand those of Chile – what sells the most is copper – would be barely 6 percent.
(Also: Colombia exported US$4,519 million in November, 8.8% more than a year ago)
By destination, the greatest dynamism would be shown by shipments of goods to the European Union and sales to the region itself.
Automotive industry
By sectors, ECLAC highlights that the region is only a relevant player worldwide in the automotive and food, beverage and tobacco industriesand in both their export capacity is concentrated in the largest economies.
On the one hand, automotive exports from the region tripled in the last 20 years, to 142,000 million dollars per year in the 2019-2021 period. Almost 90 percent of these foreign sales go to the United States and to the region itself.
(Also read: Gasnova asks the Government to assume cost overruns for LPG transportation to Nariño)
Mexico is the origin of 84 percent of regional exports of vehicles and their parts, followed by Brazil, with 9 percent participation. Then Argentina follows, with 4.3 percent. In fourth place is Chile, with 0.8 percent of the total value, and in fifth position is Colombia, with 0.4 percent.
However, it is worth noting that, except for Mexico, the other main automotive producers register deficit balances in most segments.
Automotive exports from the region have tripled in the last 20 years.
Esneyder Gutierrez. WEATHER Archive
food trade
On the other, regional exports of food, beverages and tobacco have been the most dynamic among all manufacturing sectors in the last 20 years. By country, the highest foreign sales are those of Brazil, Mexico and Argentina.
Regarding Colombia, it stands out that despite the fact that the amount of food sold is much less, the country also decreased a surplus in this sector, which according to ECLAC reached 521 million dollars in the period between 2019 and 2021.
That means that Colombia exports more food than it imports. The greatest positive balance is in sugar. On the contrary, the greatest deficit occurs in cereals, that is, more enters than is sold abroad.
The Bioethanol that is extracted from sugar cane contributes 74% to the reduction of the carbon footprint.
imports grow
In the case of imports, according to ECLAC estimates, Ecuador (41 percent) will have the largest increase in 2022, followed by Suriname (40 percent) and Jamaica (39 percent).
Then comes Guatemala (38 percent) and Honduras (37 percent). Colombia would be ranked 12th, with an increase of 28 percent. ECLAC highlights the case of Central America, fuel import subregionwhose external purchases would increase more than those of all of Latin America.
